The yield curve shape is among the most reliable macro indicators. Inversions have preceded every US recession since 1960.

Every inversion since 1960 has been followed by a recession within 6–24 months.

Getting the direction of the 10-year right is widely considered the single most important macro call — it anchors equity valuations, mortgage rates, and credit conditions.

When real rates turn deeply negative, financial conditions are maximally accommodative. Positive real rates create competition for equities.

Credit spreads are a real-time stress gauge for the financial system. Widening spreads often lead equity selloffs by weeks.

High yield spreads are the "canary in the coal mine." A spike above 600bps marks periods of significant financial distress.

NFCI synthesizes 105 indicators of financial conditions — risk, credit, and leverage subindices. Values above 0 indicate tighter-than-average conditions. This is the single best summary of whether policy is biting.

SLOOS is the most powerful predictor of the credit cycle. Banks tightening standards by >20% net has preceded every recession since 1990. Red bars = net tightening, green = net easing.

The 30yr mortgage rate is the most direct transmission mechanism of Fed policy to the real economy. At 6%+, housing affordability is at multi-decade lows and refinancing activity is frozen.

Breakeven inflation is the bond market's real-time inflation forecast — the difference between nominal and TIPS yields. Rising breakevens signal the market expects the Fed's 2% target to be breached and policy to tighten.

Moody's AAA and BAA yields show the absolute level of investment grade credit costs. The spread between them is a clean measure of within-IG credit risk premium, independent of the ICE/Bloomberg license restrictions.

The BAA-10Y spread measures the additional yield investors demand over risk-free Treasuries to hold BBB-rated debt. Spikes in this spread historically precede recessions and credit events by 6–12 months.

M2 growth is the primary liquidity gauge for the macro cycle. The COVID-era M2 surge (+25%) created inflationary excess that took years to unwind.

The surge from $15T to $22T in two years created conditions for 2022's inflation surge and Fed tightening cycle.

The Fed's balance sheet is the ultimate liquidity spigot. QE injects reserves and inflates asset prices. QT does the opposite.

Declining velocity means more money creation is needed for the same GDP growth.

The dollar is the most important macro variable. A strong dollar tightens global financial conditions, pressures commodities, and compresses EM growth — the most important cross-asset signal to monitor.

EUR/USD captures relative US–Europe growth and policy divergence. Falling EUR signals European stress and USD safe-haven demand.

JPY carry-trade barometer. Sharp JPY strengthening (USD/JPY falling) signals global risk-off and carry unwind — a key systemic stress indicator.

Oil prices lead headline CPI by 2–3 months and are a direct proxy for global demand expectations — a key input to inflation and growth forecasting.

Gold prices real rates, dollar credibility, and tail risk simultaneously. Rising gold alongside rising rates signals inflation fear is winning over monetary policy credibility.

Nat gas is a leading input-cost indicator for industrial and utility sectors and a regional inflation driver, especially winter energy costs.

The rate-of-change matters more than the absolute level — a rising unemployment rate from a low base often signals a turning point in the economic cycle.

Consecutive months below 100K signal labor market deterioration. Negative prints trigger significant risk-off positioning.

The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers is the most direct measure of labor market tightness.

Wage growth above ~3.5% makes the Fed's 2% inflation target difficult without demand destruction.

Most timely labor indicator — released weekly. A sustained rise above 300K historically signals recessionary conditions.

Structural decline in participation masks true labor market slack.

U-6 captures part-time-for-economic-reasons workers — the full picture of labor slack. The U-3/U-6 gap reveals whether underemployment is structural or cyclical, a key input to wage pressure forecasts.

A leading labor market indicator. Employers reduce hours before cutting headcount — a sustained decline in average weekly hours typically leads payrolls lower by 2–3 months.

A better measure of true employment than the unemployment rate, since it doesn't fluctuate with labor force participation changes. Post-COVID recovery in this ratio has been incomplete.

Long-term unemployment signals structural vs. cyclical labor market deterioration. Sharp rises indicate skills mismatch and permanent job displacement, not just cyclical softness.