GW&K Terminal

Market Overview

S&P 500

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NASDAQ 100

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Dow Jones

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VIX

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Fed Funds

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Upper bound

CPI YoY

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All items

Core PCE YoY

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Fed target: 2%

Unemployment

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U-3 rate

10Y Treasury

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Nominal yield

2Y-10Y Spread

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Yield curve

Real GDP

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QoQ annualized

M2 Growth YoY

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Money supply

S&P 500 — 5 Year

Weekly closing prices

Druckenmiller's primary risk thermometer. He combines price action with earnings momentum, credit conditions, and Fed liquidity — when all three deteriorate simultaneously, he moves to heavy short exposure.

Fed Funds Rate vs. CPI

Rate vs. inflation — real rate watch

Positive real rates (Fed Funds > CPI) are historically restrictive. Druckenmiller tracks this spread closely — deeply positive real rates slow credit growth and often precede market dislocations.

Yield Curve (2Y-10Y Spread)

Basis points — inversion = recession signal

CPI Inflation Trend

Year-over-year %

Unemployment Rate

Monthly, seasonally adjusted

Equity Markets

Index	Last	Day Chg	Day %	MTD	YTD	52W High	52W Low
Loading equity data…

S&P 500

Performance

Primary risk barometer. Druckenmiller combines price action with earnings revision momentum, credit conditions, and Fed liquidity.

NASDAQ 100

Performance

Most duration-sensitive major index. Growth stocks disproportionately impacted by the discount rate when the 10-year yield rises.

Dow Jones

Performance

30 blue-chip companies. Druckenmiller watches industrials and transports as leading indicators of economic activity.

VIX — Fear Index

1Y history, implied volatility

Druckenmiller watches VIX spikes as potential entry signals — historically, VIX above 40 has marked major buying opportunities.

Macro Indicators5-year history

Real GDP Growth

QoQ annualized %

Druckenmiller tracks GDP trajectory rather than level — decelerating but positive GDP can still signal deteriorating conditions for risk assets.

CPI Inflation (YoY)

All items, year-over-year %

The Fed's 2% target defines the policy reaction function. When CPI runs hot, tightening follows — compressing multiples and raising discount rates.

Core PCE (YoY)

Fed's preferred inflation gauge

Core PCE above 2% sustains restrictive policy, pressuring credit markets and equity valuations.

Industrial Production

Index level (2017=100)

Persistent declines often precede recessions. Druckenmiller watches this alongside ISM for cycle positioning.

Retail Sales (YoY)

Year-over-year % change

Consumer spending is 70% of GDP. Retail deceleration flows through to corporate earnings and equity multiples.

Housing Starts

Thousands of units, annualized

Most interest rate-sensitive sector. Sharp declines signal credit tightening is biting the real economy.

Inflation Expectations

Cleveland Fed model-implied + UMich survey

The Fed watches inflation expectations obsessively — if they become unanchored, the policy response becomes more aggressive. 1yr vs 10yr divergence signals whether markets trust the Fed's credibility.

PPI Final Demand (YoY)

Producer price inflation

PPI leads CPI by roughly 2–3 months as higher input costs work through supply chains. A key forward indicator for where consumer inflation is heading.

WTI Crude Oil

USD per barrel

Oil is the single most important commodity for headline inflation and global growth expectations. A leading indicator for CPI energy and a proxy for industrial demand.

Gold (GLD ETF)

SPDR GLD price (÷10 ≈ spot oz price)

Gold prices the intersection of real rates, dollar credibility, and tail risk. Rising gold with rising nominal rates signals the market is losing confidence in the Fed's inflation-fighting resolve.

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

USD per MMBtu

Natural gas drives utility and industrial input costs. Seasonal volatility is high but trend matters for energy CPI components and manufacturing margins.

UMich Consumer Sentiment

Index level

Consumer spending is 70% of GDP. Sentiment collapses often precede consumption slowdowns by 2–3 quarters and are a leading signal for earnings downgrades.

Chicago Fed National Activity

CFNAI: 85-indicator GDP proxy (0 = trend)

CFNAI aggregates 85 indicators into a single monthly number. Below −0.7 signals elevated recession risk. One of the most comprehensive single-number economic summaries available.

Durable Goods Orders

New orders ($B)

Capital goods orders (ex-defense, ex-aircraft) are the best forward indicator of business investment. Sustained declines signal corporate capex pullback ahead of earnings headwinds.

Building Permits

Thousands of units, annualized

Building permits lead housing starts by 1–3 months and are one of the Conference Board's 10 Leading Economic Indicators. A key forward signal for residential investment and construction employment.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Composite 20-City (seasonally adjusted)

Home prices affect household wealth, bank collateral values, and consumer confidence. Case-Shiller is the gold standard — lagged 2 months but definitive.

Rates & CreditTreasury yields & credit spreads

Treasury Yield Curve — Current

Spot yields across the curve

The yield curve shape is one of Druckenmiller's most watched indicators. Inversions have preceded every US recession since 1960.

2Y-10Y Treasury Spread

Inversion = recession warning

Every inversion since 1960 has been followed by a recession within 6–24 months.

10-Year Treasury Yield

The ultimate discount rate

Druckenmiller has stated that getting the direction of the 10-year right is the single most important macro call.

10-Year TIPS (Real Rate)

Inflation-adjusted 10-year yield

When real rates turn deeply negative, financial conditions are maximally accommodative. Positive real rates create competition for equities.

IG Credit Spread (OAS)

Investment grade over Treasuries

Credit spreads are Druckenmiller's real-time credit stress gauge. Widening spreads often lead equity selloffs by weeks.

HY Credit Spread (OAS)

High yield over Treasuries

High yield spreads are the "canary in the coal mine." A spike above 600bps marks periods of significant financial distress.

Financial Conditions (NFCI + StL FSI)

Chicago Fed NFCI & St. Louis Financial Stress Index

NFCI synthesizes 105 indicators of financial conditions — risk, credit, and leverage subindices. Values above 0 indicate tighter-than-average conditions. This is the single best summary of whether policy is biting.

Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOOS)

Net % banks tightening C&I lending standards

SLOOS is the most powerful predictor of the credit cycle. Banks tightening standards by >20% net has preceded every recession since 1990. Red bars = net tightening, green = net easing.

30-Year Mortgage Rate

Freddie Mac weekly survey

The 30yr mortgage rate is the most direct transmission mechanism of Fed policy to the real economy. At 6%+, housing affordability is at multi-decade lows and refinancing activity is frozen.

Breakeven Inflation (TIPS-Implied)

5yr & 10yr market-implied inflation expectations

Breakeven inflation is the bond market's real-time inflation forecast — the difference between nominal and TIPS yields. Rising breakevens signal the market expects the Fed's 2% target to be breached and policy to tighten.

Moody's Corporate Yields (AAA vs BAA)

Investment grade yield curve by rating

Moody's AAA and BAA yields show the absolute level of investment grade credit costs. The spread between them is a clean measure of within-IG credit risk premium, independent of the ICE/Bloomberg license restrictions.

BAA–10Y Credit Spread (Moody's)

Investment grade risk premium over Treasuries

The BAA-10Y spread measures the additional yield investors demand over risk-free Treasuries to hold BBB-rated debt. Spikes in this spread historically precede recessions and credit events by 6–12 months.

FX & Commodities5-year history · FRED daily

USD Broad Trade-Weighted Index

Index level (Jan 2006=100)

The dollar is the most important macro variable. A strong dollar tightens global financial conditions, pressures commodities, and compresses EM growth. Druckenmiller's most-watched cross-asset signal.

EUR / USD

USD per 1 Euro · rising = stronger EUR

EUR/USD captures relative US–Europe growth and policy divergence. Falling EUR signals European stress and USD safe-haven demand.

USD / JPY

Yen per 1 USD · rising = stronger USD

JPY carry-trade barometer. Sharp JPY strengthening (USD/JPY falling) signals global risk-off and carry unwind — a systemic stress indicator Druckenmiller watches closely.

WTI Crude Oil

USD per barrel

Oil prices lead headline CPI by 2–3 months and are a direct proxy for global demand expectations. A key input to Druckenmiller's inflation and growth forecasting.

Gold (GLD ETF)

SPDR GLD price (÷10 ≈ spot oz price)

Gold prices real rates, dollar credibility, and tail risk simultaneously. Rising gold alongside rising rates signals inflation fear is winning over monetary policy credibility.

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

USD per MMBtu

Nat gas is a leading input-cost indicator for industrial and utility sectors and a regional inflation driver, especially winter energy costs.

Labor MarketEmployment indicators

Unemployment Rate

U-3, monthly seasonally adjusted

Druckenmiller watches the rate-of-change: a rising rate from a low base often matters more than the absolute level.

Nonfarm Payrolls (Monthly Change)

Thousands of jobs added/lost

Consecutive months below 100K signal labor market deterioration. Negative prints trigger significant risk-off positioning.

JOLTS — Job Openings

Millions of open positions

The ratio of openings to unemployed workers is Druckenmiller's preferred tightness gauge.

Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)

Year-over-year % wage growth

Wage growth above ~3.5% makes the Fed's 2% inflation target difficult without demand destruction.

Initial Jobless Claims

Weekly, seasonally adjusted

Most timely labor indicator — released weekly. A sustained rise above 300K historically signals recessionary conditions.

Labor Force Participation Rate

% of working-age population

Structural decline in participation masks true labor market slack.

U-3 vs U-6 Unemployment

U-3 headline vs U-6 broader underemployment rate

U-6 captures part-time-for-economic-reasons workers — the full picture of labor slack. The U-3/U-6 gap reveals whether underemployment is structural or cyclical, a key input to wage pressure forecasts.

Average Weekly Hours

Private sector (hours per week)

Druckenmiller's preferred leading labor indicator. Employers cut hours before they cut headcount — a decline in average hours typically leads payrolls lower by 2–3 months.

Employment-Population Ratio

% of civilian population employed

A better measure of true employment than the unemployment rate, since it doesn't fluctuate with labor force participation changes. Post-COVID recovery in this ratio has been incomplete.

Long-term Unemployed (27+ weeks)

Thousands of persons

Long-term unemployment signals structural vs. cyclical labor market deterioration. Sharp rises indicate skills mismatch and permanent job displacement, not just cyclical softness.

API Configuration

FRED API Key

Finnhub API Key (intraday equity prices)

CORS Proxy Worker URL (Cloudflare Worker — fastest & most reliable)

Data Sources

FRED data fetched via allorigins.win CORS proxy. Equity data: intraday prices via Finnhub.io (direct, no proxy), 5-year history via FRED.
If running from a local file, use the deployed URL or run a local server: python -m http.server 8080

FRED Series Reference

Series	Description	Frequency
`DFEDTARU`	Federal Funds Rate (Upper Bound)	Daily
`CPIAUCSL`	CPI — All Urban Consumers	Monthly
`PCEPILFE`	Core PCE Price Index	Monthly
`A191RL1Q225SBEA`	Real GDP Growth Rate	Quarterly
`UNRATE`	Unemployment Rate	Monthly
`PAYEMS`	Nonfarm Payrolls	Monthly
`DGS10`	10-Year Treasury Yield	Daily
`DGS2`	2-Year Treasury Yield	Daily
`DFII10`	10-Year TIPS Real Yield	Daily
`BAMLC0A0CM`	IG Credit Spread (OAS)	Daily
`BAMLH0A0HYM2`	HY Credit Spread (OAS)	Daily
`M2SL`	M2 Money Supply	Monthly
`WALCL`	Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets	Weekly
`M2V`	Velocity of M2 Money Stock	Quarterly
`JTSJOL`	JOLTS Job Openings	Monthly
`CES0500000003`	Average Hourly Earnings	Monthly
`ICSA`	Initial Jobless Claims	Weekly
`INDPRO`	Industrial Production Index	Monthly
`RSXFS`	Retail Sales (ex. Food Services)	Monthly
`HOUST`	Housing Starts	Monthly
`CIVPART`	Labor Force Participation Rate	Monthly